Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-12 39.018097 46.059485 53.750270 62.740856 72.927852 84.077150 97.166453
2025-01-19 26.413345 35.222684 45.790127 59.258186 75.811993 95.333326 119.919927
2025-01-26 21.436399 31.333368 44.055379 61.299907 83.721224 111.520098 148.178817
2025-02-02 18.804778 29.646065 44.385397 65.361658 93.845342 130.524507 180.573985
2025-02-09 16.172166 27.366539 43.393948 67.229429 100.865258 145.632908 208.537242
2025-02-16 13.920694 25.191963 42.129119 68.354402 106.668039 159.178150 234.882839
2025-02-23 11.828761 22.874723 40.275043 68.278430 110.548010 170.079499 257.958578
2025-03-02 9.845244 20.374747 37.769337 66.854659 112.177556 177.704407 276.633805
2025-03-09 8.423396 18.585087 36.132550 66.518978 115.249310 187.368209 298.433414
2025-03-16 6.682008 15.886186 32.610732 62.740244 112.628103 188.381620 307.594167
2025-03-23 6.043037 15.195269 32.464444 64.483973 118.733121 202.627406 336.678156
2025-03-30 5.122465 13.757318 30.778760 63.394960 120.107168 209.620650 355.090370
2025-04-06 4.773740 13.582105 31.614801 67.151303 130.305538 231.700337 398.803464
2025-04-13 3.685275 11.507674 28.512551 63.521651 127.864541 233.882623 412.340079
2025-04-20 3.304003 11.025956 28.534928 65.685346 135.541372 252.669367 452.629125
2025-04-27 3.137620 11.054245 29.624404 69.982394 147.246247 278.572062 505.238985
2025-05-04 2.815275 10.584674 29.556243 71.957394 154.838385 297.932992 548.020918
2025-05-11 2.482721 9.998034 29.132905 73.146683 161.017145 315.138209 587.894848
2025-05-18 2.123281 9.226720 28.156877 73.066373 164.761556 328.288091 621.516486
2025-05-25 1.747982 8.281421 26.600991 71.561155 165.623278 336.397346 646.948627
2025-06-01 1.482501 7.613857 25.626375 71.206225 168.658315 348.405916 679.329409
2025-06-08 1.125680 6.464780 23.172793 67.209540 164.089271 346.498734 687.721610
2025-06-15 1.017927 6.248402 23.231633 69.054137 171.511200 366.673640 735.029345